The Bounce Newsletter
| This is The Athletic’s daily NBA newsletter.Sign up hereto receive The Bounce directly in your inbox.
Hey, this is Jason stepping in for Zach, who has enjoyed some R&R in Hawaii. Shoutout to him for the hospitality. Time for a good substitution — word to Birdiefrom “Above the Rim.”
Veteran Vibes
Team USA rides trusty hot hands in win
Let’s hear it for basketball players old enough to have owned an iPod.
I’m 45, so I openly root for any athletes near my age. If you’re old enough to have been hyped about the release of the first PlayStation or had a flip cell phone in a leather case, you have my support. In that regard, it was impossiblenotto enjoy the U.S. men’s basketball team’s110-84 win over Serbiayesterday to open its path to a fifth consecutive gold medal. Here are a few takeaways from the win:
Trust the old guys
Kevin Durant will be 36 in September and spent the exhibition games leading up to yesterday’s Group C opener doing what you might expect from one of the older Olympians … recovering from an injury. Despite his layoff, though,Durant came off the benchand made his first eight shots to remind everyone he’s still one of the greatest offensive players we’ve seen. Twenty-one of his 23 points came in the first half, so it’s clear Father Time hasn’t taken Durant’s shooting touch.
The all-time leading 🇺🇸 #USABMNT scorer keeps on adding to his tally.#Paris2024 #Basketball pic.twitter.com/19SI6WKlxp
— USA Basketball (@usabasketball) July 28, 2024
Then, there’s 39-year-old LeBron James, who is the oldest player on the team but is hardly performing as though he’s on an Olympic farewell tour. He had 23 points, nine assists and seven rebounds and still moves defenders out the way with that old-man strength, making nine of 13 shots.There’s a saying that you don’t fight an old man, because he’ll do all he can not to be embarrassed.Serbia didn’t pick a fight with James, though. They were just bullied by him.
The King goes coast-to-coast.
🇺🇸 #USABMNT #Paris2024 #Basketball
— USA Basketball (@usabasketball) July 28, 2024
Stephen Curry, 36, wasn’t bad. Throw in his 11 points, and the old guys scored half of the Americans’ points yesterday.
Throughout the broadcast and in the buildup to the Olympics,this iteration of Team USAhas been mentioned as the best since the Dream Team,but that comparison isn’t fair. No opposing team had a player on par with the Americans in 1992. Three-time NBA MVP Nikola Jokić of Serbia might be the best overall player in this year’s Olympic field,but he wasn’t the best player on the floor Sunday.
“To have KD on my side is a treat for sure.”
LeBron after his near triple-double performance in USA’s #Paris2024 opener! 🇺🇸
See AlsoTeam USA vs. South Sudan prediction, odds, time: 2024 Paris Olympics men's basketball picks by proven expertFrance vs. Germany Prediction, Odds, Picks - Men's Olympic Basketball, Aug. 2📺 NBC and Peaco*ckpic.twitter.com/fwFmQkEGdS
— NBA (@NBA) July 28, 2024
Y’all know the pronouns: HE/HIM 👑 😂 https://t.co/WNbD9GWMLA
— DWade (@DwyaneWade) July 28, 2024
Game recognizes game.
🇺🇸 #USABMNT x @KSSrbije pic.twitter.com/5RrA6cXcPv
— USA Basketball (@usabasketball) July 28, 2024
How could he be? He doesn’t even turn 30 until next February, so he’s a youngster compared to LeBron, Durant and Curry. Sunday was about the old guys of the USA … which brings us to the young starswhodidn’tsee the court.
Curious DNPs
Jayson Tatum is an All-NBA player and helped Boston win the 2024 NBA Championship. Tyrese Haliburton led Indiana to the Eastern Conference finals. One thing they have in common? Neither played in Sunday’s win.
Advertisem*nt
Of the three Celtics on Team USA, who would have predicted Tatum would be the onenotto play?The 26-year-old Tatum seems like a logical frontcourt starterwith James and Joel Embiid, but coach Steve Kerr started Devin Booker along with the backcourt of Curry and Jrue Holiday.
Haliburton, 24, is stuck behind Curry, Holiday, Booker, Anthony Edwards and Derrick White at the guard spot. Team USA has plenty of playmaking options thanks to LeBron and Curry. Holiday, White and Edwards provide on-ball defensive play Haliburton lacks.
If Durant is healthy, Kerr, who coached Durant in Golden State and won two championships, figures to rely on him. The same for Curry. Kerr will ride with him, barring injury.
If Team USA continues playing like it did Sunday, it’s hard to argue against that strategy, even if two of the NBA’s best young players have to watch from the sideline.
Big-man concerns?
Speaking of lineups, might it be time for Kerr to start Anthony Davis over Embiid?
Embiid, the 2022-23 NBA MVP, hasn’t looked like a top-two center in international play. On Sunday, Kerr quickly went to Davis as Embiid played just 11 minutes while recording as many turnovers as made shots (two apiece). He was the only American to register a negative plus-minus against Serbia (minus-eight).Embiid missed a jumper, two free throws and committed a turnover before being substituted for Davis about three minutes into the action.
Team USA is still winning, so it’s not like the roster needs a spark. If Kerr likes Davis and Bam Adebayo playing together with the second unit, I wouldn’t be shocked.Team USA has the depth to withstand games where Embiid might not be his best. I was just hoping for more from the Embiid-Jokić matchup.
Next game:Wednesday at 3 p.m. ET vs. South Sudan
Preseason Awards Odds!
Are these the right favorites for next season?
It’s never too early to start looking at awards betting odds. That’s what the end of July is for. We have all of the big moves done — we think? Shams would know better — so now it’s time to pontificate on what might happen. The good thing about examining this stuff so early in the NBA calendar is we have plenty of time to change our opinions on what might happen. But the trick is we can always point back to this if they end up being correct and say, “We knew it all along.”
Advertisem*nt
Our friends at BetMGM have 2024-25 regular-season awards betting odds, so let’s dive into the favorite, see if that’s the right call and figure out the right dark horse candidate. Let’s dive in!
Most Valuable Player
Current favorite:Nikola Jokić and Luka Dončić (+375).
How do we feel?While this feels like the obvious, safe choice, I hate two guys sharing the best odds. Make up your mind! Jokić winning a fourth MVPwould tie himwith LeBron James and Wilt Chamberlain for third-most in history. (Michael Jordan and Bill Russell have five each. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar has six.) For next season’s award, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is third with +550 odds. Those are probably your leaders all year depending on how healthy Joel Embiid is or how good the Bucks are for Giannis’ chances.
Dark horse candidate:Anthony Edwards (+1600). He’s becoming the face of the league. Getting the No. 1 seed andhaving a monster campaigncould bring him the hardware at 23 years old.
Rookie of the Year
Current favorite:Zach Edey of the Grizzlies (+600).
How do we feel?This may be the weakest race for ROY since Malcolm Brogdon (2017) or Michael Carter-Williams (2013). Reed Sheppard (Rockets) is right behind the Memphis giant with +650 odds. Zaccharie Risacher (Hawks), Matas Buzelis (Bulls) and Dalton Knecht (Lakers) round out the top five. This may not be the most highly touted ROY race we’ve ever seen. Are any of these guys even definite starters? Edey didhave a sound showingin summer league.
Dark horse candidate:Cody Williams (+2000). He was one of my favorite players in the draft and could actually get a lot of run for the Jazz.
Defensive Player of the Year
Current favorite:Victor Wembanyama (-250).
How do we feel?Will Wemby win the next 10 DPOY awards? I know this sounds ridiculous and hyperbolic, but … is it? He had a tremendous impact on the Spurs’ horrendous defense in his rookie campaign. Now, he’s going to lead the league in blocks. If San Antonio is halfway decent, Wemby will grab this award.
Advertisem*nt
Dark horse candidate:Bam Adebayo (+1600). The Heat’s big man has never won the award but is always good enough to do it. Also, look at Jrue Holiday at +5000 odds. Everybody loves him.
Coach of the Year
Current favorite:Ime Udoka (+850).
How do we feel?While I do think the Rockets are going to be very good in Udoka’s second season with the team, I feel the West is too compacted to feel like Houston will definitely make the playoffs. And that could greatly impact whether or not Udoka gets the award. Joe Mazzulla and Jamahl Mosely are next at +1000. I think Mazzulla having another 60-win season will get him the award.
Dark horse candidate:Doc Rivers (+3000). I’m being serious! I think the Bucks could be top two in the East, so I could see the media rewarding Doc with it.
Over/Under Odds
Who has the most interesting projections?
We’re not just looking at preseason awards odds! BetMGM also hit us with the over/under win total numbers heading into next season, and there’s nothing we love more than saying “over or under” on a highly educated win total attached to a half number. This is a real evaluation of a team’s chance to contend in the upcoming season, so let’s look at the teams you should believe in, those you should expect failure from, and which squads you should stay away from.
Who should you believe in?
- Boston Celtics:58.5 wins. Only five teams in the last 20 years have had back-to-back 60-win seasons. Even with the Kristaps Porziņģis injury,this team feels like a lock for it.
- Milwaukee Bucks:52.5 wins. I believe in their regular-season prowess this year!
- Detroit Pistons:24.5 wins. I don’t know if people realizehow truly detrimentalMonty Williams was last season.
Who should you doubt?
- Brooklyn Nets:19.5 wins. They just signed Killian Hayes and are looking to tank. There’s not a chance they reach 20 wins.
- Toronto Raptors:30.5 wins. I’m not convinced they will be set up for success this season, and it would behoove them to tank at some point and actually get to use their first-round pick.
- Golden State Warriors:43.5 wins. Their season is contingent on Draymond Green not getting himself suspended. I’ll take the under.
Who is too close to call?
- Atlanta Hawks:35.5 wins. This team epitomizes a35.5-win ceiling.
- Denver Nuggets:52.5 wins. They got worse and remember how tired they got chasing the No. 1 seed?
- San Antonio Spurs:35.5 wins.I believe in Wemby, but I don’t believe in Chris Paul’s health.
Bounce Passes
Warriors ownerJoe LacobdiscussedStephen Curry’sfuture,Klay Thompson’sdeparture and more.
Here’swhat everyone is sayingaboutWemby’s Olympic debut.
Charles Barkleyisexpected to entertainESPN,NBCandAmazonif TNTdoesn’t honor his 10-year, $210 million contract.
(Top photo: Markus Gilliar/ Getty Images)
Jason Jones is a staff writer for The Athletic, covering Culture. Previously, he spent 16 years at the Sacramento Bee, covering the Sacramento Kings and Oakland Raiders. He's a proud Southern California native and a graduate of the University of California at Berkeley Follow Jason on Twitter @mr_jasonjones
